Fire in California

cosmokenney said:
Do those number include the cost of the land as well? Not trying to say you are wrong, but wouldn't the cost per foot be the same on the beach/hillside as further back? The lot is obviously going to be way more costly if buying new. But the people who lost homes don't have to buy their lots again.
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To build.. not to buy.
 
cosmokenney said:
I would think the basic framing is pretty constant across the board. But the other stuff would be more costly due to, like you said, owners picking higher end materials.
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Its just what it costs to build a quality home here.. 20 years ago it was $250ft now its $550. It’s gotten out of control. The unlicensed, uninsured builder might do it for a little less than $550… but good luck with that.
 
cosmokenney said:
I would think the basic framing is pretty constant across the board. But the other stuff would be more costly due to, like you said, owners picking higher end materials.
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Maybe using wood will be banned.

Anyone using insurance money to rebuild their house is not likely to put much of their own money into it. They did not ask for this disaster. They have other things in life to do.

Since the land is 2/3rds of the value, smart people will take a cash payout from the insurance company and seek an existing house elsewhere. Then they can remove the refuse from their land and sell the lot. It is not likely to make a profit, but it avoids the hell of living in temporary housing (surely in short supply) for a couple of years (or more) as the home is rebuilt.

Oh, and Trump is deporting all the illegal aliens, and these are the people who do almost all of the construction work. It is difficult to build a home without the skilled labor to do the work.
 
bobfriesenhahn said:
Maybe using wood will be banned.

Anyone using insurance money to rebuild their house is not likely to put much of their own money into it. They did not ask for this disaster. They have other things in life to do.

Since the land is 2/3rds of the value, smart people will take a cash payout from the insurance company and seek an existing house elsewhere. Then they can remove the refuse from their land and sell the lot. It is not likely to make a profit, but it avoids the hell of living in temporary housing (surely in short supply) for a couple of years (or more) as the home is rebuilt.

Oh, and Trump is deporting all the illegal aliens, and these are the people who do almost all of the construction work. It is difficult to build a home without the skilled labor to do the work.
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jeeeep said:
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I assume that you would choose to rebuild in what is now a burned wasteland rather than cash-out as much as possible and move to a location which is still nice and pretty?

Lots of people only own a small fraction of their mortgage value (essentially owning nothing at all) and perhaps they may prefer to throw in their chips and start over.
 
bobfriesenhahn said:
I assume that you would choose to rebuild in what is now a burned wasteland rather than cash-out as much as possible and move to a location which is still nice and pretty?

Lots of people only own a small fraction of their mortgage value (essentially owning nothing at all) and perhaps they may prefer to throw in their chips and start over.
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It's not a wasteland. It's California Chaparral. It's supposed to look like this after a fire. Most, if not all, plant seeds in this eco system require upwards of 2500 F to germinate. If California gets heavy rains like they did last year, half of Malibu will wash into the ocean, the hills will explode with lush new growth and the cycle will begin again.
 
GP NOIR said:
It's not a wasteland. It's California Chaparral. It's supposed to look like this after a fire. Most, if not all, plant seeds in this eco system require upwards of 2500 F to germinate. If California gets heavy rains like they did last year, half of Malibu will wash into the ocean, the hills will explode with lush new growth and the cycle will begin again.
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Right. But the attractive neighborhoods of fully custom homes developed over 100 years have been changed to a moonscape. People bought there because of what it was and who was already living there. There is not much value from building pre-designed cookie-cutter urban sprawl.

There will be flash flood for years. Look at what happened to Flagstaff as an example.

Having grown up in southern California, as well as immediately seeing the aftermath of the Cedar Fire in the San Diego area (273k acres) in 2003, I am well aware of what happens, and how quickly the plants will recover.
 
bobfriesenhahn said:
Right. But the attractive neighborhoods of fully custom homes developed over 100 years have been changed to a moonscape. People bought there because of what it was and who was already living there. There is not much value from building pre-designed cookie-cutter urban sprawl.

There will be flash flood for years. Look at what happened to Flagstaff as an example.

Having grown up in southern California, as well as immediately seeing the aftermath of the Cedar Fire in the San Diego area (273k acres) in 2003, I am well aware of what happens, and how quickly the plants will recover.
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I grew up in SoCal myself. Lived in Box Canyon before Mom & Dad moved us down into Simi Valley. If Dad hadn't been a volunteer fireman, our house in Box Canyon would have been left to burn to the ground. I played in the aftermath. Mom was probably tired of me coming inside covered with black soot!

If they're real Californios, they have the grit to rebuild.
 
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