Anyone self quarantined? AKA - the 2020 SH!T SHOW

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Sharkey said:
...and rely on a gov't mandated moratorium against evictions. Should be interesting to see how all of that plays out in the long run.
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In California those moratoriums are at the local, local level. City by city, at least what I’ve seen.

We are going to see lots of closed businesses and lots of bankruptcies. The Federal government will try to prop things up by dropping interest rates and printing money. As usual, the rich and the saavy will prosper. The rest will slide backward, just as happened after 2008/2009.


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J&k_overland said:
I didn’t suggest do nothing. I said that the response is overblown. Take precautions if your at risk, wash your damn hands. Stop acting like it’s the damn apocalypse my aunt and uncle were old had health issues and were living in assisted living. It was really just a question of when. That sounds callous but it’s the damn truth again Be safe take precautions if need be
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Your response was "My opinion this is all bullshit it’s not that bad the risk is minimal"...if the risk is minimal, shouldn't we get back to business as normal?...I mean, since only the old with health issues will die, and they are already on their way out...who needs them?...
 
Brute said:
Your response was "My opinion this is all bullshit it’s not that bad the risk is minimal"...if the risk is minimal, shouldn't we get back to business as normal?...I mean, since only the old with health issues will die, and they are already on their way out...who needs them?...
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Afraid you’re going to be left on a hillside Ed?


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Brute said:
Your response was "My opinion this is all bullshit it’s not that bad the risk is minimal"...if the risk is minimal, shouldn't we get back to business as normal?...I mean, since only the old with health issues will die, and they are already on their way out...who needs them?...
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Damn man I also said the elderly and those with underlying conditions are at risk and should take care. Cmon now I mean I know I’m a callous asshole but at least read the whole damn thing.
 
Sharkey said:
Bottom line, each of us has the absolute control over whether we, as individuals, get this virus. Each of us can choose to stay at home (or wherever) and completely isolate ourselves from every other human until the rest of the population is dead, immune, or whatever (even if it takes months/years). The question becomes how much of that choice are you willing to let your government make for you? How much are you willing to let your government decide for you what is, or is not, acceptable risk? Invariably, different people will answer those questions differently. Some people want their government to protect them from all of the ills in the world. Other people don't.
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Well said.
Some of us still believe in individual freedom and responsibility.

I'm all for being able to be educated in a topic and then making my own choices, and accepting the consequences, good or bad.

fiend said:
In California those moratoriums are at the local, local level. City by city, at least what I’ve seen.

We are going to see lots of closed businesses and lots of bankruptcies. The Federal government will try to prop things up by dropping interest rates and printing money. As usual, the rich and the saavy will prosper. The rest will slide backward, just as happened after 2008/2009.


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You got it. The ones at the top of the heap are usually there because they are smarter and work harder/make better choices than the rest of the herd.

Whatever "Helicopter Money" scheme the government comes up with, the majority of it is going to end up in the pockets of those already at the top.

On top of that, as marginal businesses fail, those at the top will be in position to cherry pick the good assets at a bargain basement price, and build all that much more wealth.

If ever there was an incentive to study hard and make smart financial decisions, that should be it, but far too many want instant gratification instead of putting in the work required to make it to the top.
 
Brute said:
It could be worse?...you just mentioned you lost family to this...how much worse could it get?

Dr. Birx, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, hired by Trump predicts best case scenario 100,000 to 200,000 deaths...Dr Anthony Fauci, from the CDC, says worst case scenario, if we do nothing like you suggest (since it's not as bad as the flu or auto accidents) says 1.6 to 2.2 million deaths...

I guess that qualifies as worse...
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None of the modeling is even close to logically reliable...and I mean the modeling in either direction. A true mortality rate can never be projected unless and until we know how many people have had the virus, got better, and never were tested. Comparing deaths to positive test results will ALWAYS yield an artificially high number unless the entire population is tested.

Instead, the pundits on each side come up with flawed denominators against which they apply a numerator (known deaths) to arrive at a mortality percentage that fits their particular narrative.

On top of that, there are literally dozens of variables that make each country, state, County, city and town profoundly different than any other place.

It’s bullshit, all of it...from every side.




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I've been called a "fearmonger" here, an alarmist, and probably worse...and I really don't care. I have good friends who are pathologists, heads of depts. of major hospitals and medical universities...and at one time we were a major stakeholder in the US largest flu vaccine distributor, a company that was started by a very good close friend...and they all tell me something very different than what I'm hearing here...

This thing is here to stay...it will abate by the end of summer, and ramp up again at the end of the year as part of a cyclical wave of infections. It is not the flu...not even close; it is far more infectious, and has a far higher rate of mortality....period. It will change how and where we travel globally...and we will stop it as soon as we develop an effective vaccine against it...and not before...

I cannot stand that we have government intervention in our lives at every level...but I'm going to roll with it...
 
Sharkey said:
None of the modeling is even close to logically reliable...and I mean the modeling in either direction. A true mortality rate can never be projected unless and until we know how many people have had the virus, got better, and never were tested. Comparing deaths to positive test results will ALWAYS yield an artificially high number unless the entire population is tested.

Instead, the pundits on each side come up with flawed denominators against which they apply a numerator (known deaths) to arrive at a mortality percentage that fits their particular narrative.

On top of that, there are literally dozens of variables that make each country, state, County, city and town profoundly different than any other place.

It’s bullshit, all of it...from every side.





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The projections from the White House, which are the more conservative ones that I've seen, are not based solely on mortality rates in comparison to confirmed cases...obviously they are no longer testing anyone unless they have a strong suspicion of infection...they are based on models they believe how the infection will spread, and how many they believe will be hospitalized...

When the Donald is telling us that he should be getting a pat on the back for limiting deaths to only 100,000, that alone should be enough to concern you...

So, you will believe it when you believe it....
 
Brute said:
I've been called a "fearmonger" here, an alarmist, and probably worse...and I really don't care. I have good friends who are pathologists, heads of depts. of major hospitals and medical universities...and at one time we were a major stakeholder in the US largest flu vaccine distributor, a company that was started by a very good close friend...and they all tell me something very different than what I'm hearing here...

This thing is here to stay...it will abate by the end of summer, and ramp up again at the end of the year as part of a cyclical wave of infections. It is not the flu...not even close; it is far more infectious, and has a far higher rate of mortality....period. It will change how and where we travel globally...and we will stop it as soon as we develop an effective vaccine against it...and not before...

I cannot stand that we have government intervention in our lives at every level...but I'm going to roll with it...
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I'm not calling anyone a fear monger. I am calling out the actions and numbers of everyone, from all sides, because none of them are reliable in my opinion and everyone acts like they know how this will play out. I too have direct ties to a variety of health professionals at a variety of levels. One of them, my actual brother, is a very high level physician and administrator at the local VA. He is currently in quarantine because of direct exposure to another physician who became "presumptive positive" over the weekend. He and I text daily about what he is seeing and thinking, and what their own infectious disease specialists are saying and thinking. His personal perspective is not nearly as grim as what you are being told. But, he readily admits that he could be wrong. Any doctor who does not admit the same is, in my opinion, being intellectually dishonest. There simply isn't enough reliable data out there to conclusively say what will or will not happen.

Question though: Are the people you know telling you that the same person can contract the virus (coronavirus), get the disease (covid-19), get better, and then contract it again? I have yet to see anyone make that claim, much less see the data to support such a claim. Of course, the virus theoretically can mutate rendering prior exposure wholly or partially pointless. If that happens though, a vaccine is going to only have limited usefulness anyway. Absent such mutation, however, there are not an unlimited number of hosts for the virus.

The "projected" number of deaths (according to IMHE from the University of Washington) for the entire nation, presuming strong social distancing and other measures are used, is currently at about 82,000 and change. For Nevada, it's about 568. New York is likely going to take a hard hit in all of this, and there are relatively specific reasons why that is likely to be the case. Those are estimates running through August of this year, although all of that modeling shows a significant drop in daily deaths by June. Again, all of that is just modeling using extrapolation to create the narrative that the author wants to create.
 
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